Is the Considerable Avalanche Rating the Deadliest?

Why is 'Considerable' the scariest rating on the avalanche danger scale?

If you've ever skied out of bounds, you've likely checked the avalanche forecast and seen the dreaded orange square: Considerable. For most of us, it feels like a middle ground—not as alarming as High or Extreme, but not as reassuring as Low or Moderate. But I'm here to tell you: Considerable is the deadliest rating on the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale. It's the rating that has likely killed more backcountry skiers than any other, and it's the one that deserves your utmost respect.

Let me be blunt: if you're not treating Considerable with the same caution as High, you're playing a dangerous game. The avalanche danger increases exponentially between levels, not linearly (avalanche.org). That means the jump from Moderate to Considerable is not just one step—it's a massive leap in risk. Yet, because the word 'Considerable' doesn't sound as terrifying as 'High' or 'Extreme,' skiers often let their guard down. And that's exactly when avalanches strike.

What 'Considerable' really means

The North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale has five levels: Low, Moderate, Considerable, High, and Extreme. At Considerable, natural avalanches are possible and human-triggered avalanches are likely (avalanche.org). In other words, the mountain is primed to slide if you step on the wrong slope. This isn't a theoretical risk; it's a near-certainty if you trigger the right weak layer.

Contrast that with Moderate, where human-triggered avalanches are possible but not likely. The leap in likelihood is huge. At High, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended, and at Extreme, all avalanche terrain should be avoided. But Considerable sits in a gray zone: it's not recommended to avoid all avalanche terrain, but it's also not safe to travel in just any slope. That ambiguity is what makes it so dangerous.

The numbers don't lie

Avalanche fatalities in the U.S. have hovered around 25 to 30 per year since 1995, despite a massive surge in backcountry use (avalanche.org). This stability is often misread as 'avalanches aren't a big deal.' But consider this: backcountry use has increased 8-fold since 1995 (avalanche.org). If the fatality rate had stayed constant, we'd see over 200 deaths annually. The reason we don't is because of education and better forecasting—but that also means the remaining deaths are concentrated in specific situations, and Considerable danger is a prime suspect.

I can't give you an exact percentage of fatalities tied to each rating—the fact base doesn't break it down that way. But I can tell you that the deadliest scenarios often involve skiers who misjudge the danger level. When you see Considerable, you're dealing with a rating that says human-triggered avalanches are likely. That's not a subtle warning. That's a red flag.

The comparison: Considerable vs. High vs. Moderate

To understand why Considerable is so tricky, let's compare it side by side with its neighbors.

Notice the jump from 'possible' to 'likely.' That's a massive increase in risk. Yet the travel advice for Considerable—'be conservative'—sounds almost casual compared to High's 'not recommended.' This discrepancy is deadly: skiers hear 'be conservative' and think 'I'll just avoid the steepest slopes.' But at Considerable, even moderate-angle slopes can slide. The danger scale is not linear, and the advice reflects that poorly.

My recommendation: When you see Considerable, treat it like High

Here's my strong opinion: if the forecast calls for Considerable danger and you're planning to ski out of bounds, you should treat it as if it's High. That means sticking to slopes less than 30 degrees, avoiding terrain traps like gullies and cliffs, and checking the forecast for each elevation band—because danger can vary by elevation (avalanche.org). Parks Canada goes even further, recommending that the general public avoid areas with High or Extreme danger entirely, and restrict travel to simple terrain or stay within resort boundaries (parks.canada.ca). I'd extend that advice to Considerable.

Now, I'm not saying you can't ski out of bounds on a Considerable day. I'm saying you need to make decisions like a professional. That means carrying a beacon, shovel, and probe, and knowing how to use them. But even with gear, the risk is high. Avalanche fatalities often involve experienced skiers who made a single mistake. On a Considerable day, one mistake is all it takes.

Bottom line

The single best move you can make is to treat Considerable danger with the same respect as High. If you see Considerable in the forecast, either stay in-bounds, or if you go out, stick to low-angle terrain and avoid any slope that could slide. Don't let the word 'Considerable' lull you into complacency. The avalanche danger scale is not a suggestion—it's a guide to staying alive. And when it says 'likely,' you should listen.

Sources

• Avalanche danger scale - https://avalanche.org
• Avalanche danger scale (Parks Canada) - https://www.parks.canada.ca/pn-np/mtn/securiteenmontagne-mountainsafety/avalanche/echellerisque-dangerscale
• Avalanche fatality trends (WEM/USDA) - http://avalanche.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/17_WEM_Birkeland_etal_AvFatalities.pdf